The close of the calendar year signals the end of a program year for some utilities and a midway point for others. In either case, it’s a good time to assess the past year’s progress and prognosticate program trends. While this is not a comprehensive review, I wanted to share a few overarching program themes to spark the discussion.

Common trends in 2011
> Lighting dominated the measure mix and comprised the bulk of energy savings in most programs.
> Opportunities and risks associated with the T12 lamp phase-out were assessed; several programs promoted T12 retrofit measures through rebate changes and marketing campaigns.
> Average project sizes and incentive payments decreased.
> Federal stimulus funds drove participation rates in government and school sectors.
> Trade Ally programs became more robust.
> Programs increasingly promoted limited-time rebate increases, participation bonuses, and niche segment offerings.

Trends in 2012 and beyond
> State energy efficiency goals increase, while funding mechanisms, such as decoupling, evolve. More emphasis on project pipeline projections, managing rate of incentive payouts, wait-list planning, and strategic messaging to maintain customer satisfaction.
> Average project size decreases or remains flat due to more, small customers participating in programs and ongoing economic uncertainties. The implementation model will shift to engage and support this dispersed customer base and manage a larger volume of applications.
> Programs maximize savings from T12 lamps in the short run while seeking new pinch-hitter measures to fill the void when T12 incentives phase out. Expect more short-term promotions and incentive changes.
> Continued focus on simplifying measure requirements and rebate applications drives participation, especially in HVAC and controls. Measures move from custom to prescriptive, or a simplified hybrid.
> Trade Ally contributions to energy savings grow along with marketing and technical support from programs. Increased emphasis on sales training and co-branded marketing materials.
> Programs implement new approaches, such as efficiency RFPs, to secure deeper, broader savings.
> Marketing campaigns target a more-defined customer segment with specific messaging and promotional offers. Incentives and information are bundled to appeal to niche market segments, such as data centers.
> Operational efficiencies, technology tools, and market education create leaner, more agile implementation teams.

What energy efficiency trends do you think we will see in 2012 and beyond?